A large body of empirical literature has shown that politicians’ time horizons influence the level of corruption they engage in. However, some studies suggest that corruption follows a U-shaped pattern across a politician’s tenure, decreasing in the middle and rising again toward the end, while others find an inverse U-shape. We argue that these conflicting findings can be explained by distinguishing between two types of corruption based on whether the corrupt act is one-sided (extraction) or mutually beneficial (collusion). To test this hypothesis, we analyze provincial governors in Vietnam, leveraging 15 years of nationally representative firm-level data and biographical information on local leaders. Our findings provide strong support for a relationship between political tenure and corruption in the case of extractive corruption, which follows a clear inverse U-shaped pattern. In contrast, the evidence for collusive corruption is weaker and less precisely estimated, offering only limited support for a U-shaped trajectory. This contrast underscores that while timing is a crucial determinant of corruption, its impact varies systematically with the nature of the corrupt act.
Tuan-Ngoc Phan is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Fulbright University Vietnam. His research examines political economy, corruption, and governance, with a focus on Vietnam’s subnational institutions. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Duke University, where he studied how political selection shapes corruption behavior and economic performance among Vietnamese provincial leaders.
His methodological approaches include causal inference, large-scale surveys, and field experiments. Dr. Phan also engages in policy work through the annual Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) reports, and his work with firm-level surveys on the business environment informs his academic research. His research has been published in Governance and Business and Politics, among other outlets.
Host: Prof Duy TRINH, Assistant Professor, Division of Social Science, HKUST