Abstract

When and how does nationalist discourse fracture the in-group solidarity it purports to foster? Conventional wisdom holds that nationalist persuasion strengthens internal cohesion by rallying citizens against external enemies, thereby bolstering regime support. This article examines unintended consequences of nationalist narratives, suggesting that nationalist sentiment may systematically spill over into domestic disputes through the proliferation of conspiracy theories, which exacerbate internal divides rather than forging consensus. Using computational text analysis of millions of Weibo posts, comments, and trending in China from 2015 to 2025, this study finds that heightened nationalist rhetoric spills over from the state’s dominant focus on external threats in high-politics issues to domestic parties in low-politics domains. Certain issues are commonly targeted by nationalist spillover, with conspiracy theories driving the spillover process. Yet, nationalist spillover tends to trigger backlash and generate public opposition. This research advances our understanding of the in-group and out-group dynamics of nationalism and reveals the differentiated effects of nationalist persuasion across issue areas.